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Two comparisons, both shown. The national basis ranks Essex County against every scored U.S. county — its percentile band above is a relative national standing, not a condition. The in-state basis ranks it against New Jersey's other counties (rank and percentile only — bands aren't meaningful within a single state). A county can stand out in its own state while sitting mid-pack nationally. Neither is a forecast.

Pillar breakdown — national percentile ranks

What this means for Essex County

Essex County scores 49.5 on the national CAERI basis — 1604th of 3,142 scored U.S. counties, placing it in the 25th–50th band nationally by percentile, with a high-confidence rating. Within New Jersey it ranks 19th of 21 counties (12th in-state percentile). The score summarizes how concentrated local employment is in AI-exposed occupations against the economy's measured capacity to adapt; these are relative-standing bands, not a projection of local job change.

Direct occupational exposure stands at the 86th national percentile. The largest concentrations of locally estimated employment in high-exposure occupations are office clerks, general, customer service representatives, secretaries and administrative assistants, except legal, medical, and executive. The share of exposed-industry jobs held by workers under 25 is 7% — below the state median of 8%; research on AI-era payrolls finds early-career roles in exposed work are where hiring patterns shift first, so this share indicates how soon exposure could be felt, not how large it is.

The share of exposed-industry jobs held by workers 55 and over is 28% (near the state median) — a higher share historically means slower workforce adjustment when industries restructure. Fiscal sensitivity ranks at the 43rd percentile among New Jersey's counties. Census of Governments data shows state aid at 24% of this county's general revenue (well above the state median), and wage- and consumption-sensitive streams (sales, income, and similar own-source taxes, where levied) at 0% of own-source revenue. Property taxes, which respond to economic change more slowly, are counted separately and are not part of that sensitive share. How this state's aid formulas and tax structure carry economic change into local budgets is covered in the state-specific fiscal analysis available to subscribers. All county occupation figures on this page are model-based ESTIMATES with the confidence rating shown above.

Largest locally-estimated employment in high-exposure occupations

Across all 214 high-exposure occupations (top quartile of ensemble exposure) with estimated local employment, Essex County has an estimated 99,997 jobs — 27.4% of county employment — carrying an estimated $9B annual wage bill in high-exposure work. The five largest:

Age structure of exposed-industry employment

Cite this page

Machine-readable: this county's JSON · national dataset download and data dictionary on the methodology page.

Nearby and comparable counties

Union Co., NJ (in state)Passaic Co., NJ (in state)Gloucester Co., NJ (in state)Johnson Co., GA (similar score)Sutton Co., TX (similar score)Anderson Co., SC (similar score)

Links point to the economically nearest counties (in-state, and similar national score). County-level geographic adjacency is not part of the public reference data, so proximity here is by rank, not by shared border.

Sources & provenance