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Two comparisons, both shown. The national basis ranks Lancaster County against every scored U.S. county — its percentile band above is a relative national standing, not a condition. The in-state basis ranks it against Virginia's other counties (rank and percentile only — bands aren't meaningful within a single state). A county can stand out in its own state while sitting mid-pack nationally. Neither is a forecast.

Pillar breakdown — national percentile ranks

What this means for Lancaster County

Lancaster County scores 66.2 on the national CAERI basis — 171st of 3,142 scored U.S. counties, placing it in the Top 10% band nationally by percentile, with a low-confidence rating. Within Virginia it ranks 28th of 133 counties (79th in-state percentile). The score summarizes how concentrated local employment is in AI-exposed occupations against the economy's measured capacity to adapt; these are relative-standing bands, not a projection of local job change.

Direct occupational exposure stands at the 95th national percentile. The largest concentrations of locally estimated employment in high-exposure occupations are substitute teachers, short-term, accountants and auditors, management analysts. The share of exposed-industry jobs held by workers under 25 is 9% — above the state median of 8%; research on AI-era payrolls finds early-career roles in exposed work are where hiring patterns shift first, so this share indicates how soon exposure could be felt, not how large it is.

The share of exposed-industry jobs held by workers 55 and over is 33% (well above the state median) — a higher share historically means slower workforce adjustment when industries restructure. Fiscal sensitivity ranks at the 75th percentile among Virginia's counties. Census of Governments data shows state aid at 19% of this county's general revenue (well below the state median), and wage- and consumption-sensitive streams (sales, income, and similar own-source taxes, where levied) at 15% of own-source revenue. Property taxes, which respond to economic change more slowly, are counted separately and are not part of that sensitive share. How this state's aid formulas and tax structure carry economic change into local budgets is covered in the state-specific fiscal analysis available to subscribers. All county occupation figures on this page are model-based ESTIMATES with the confidence rating shown above.

Largest locally-estimated employment in high-exposure occupations

Across all 165 high-exposure occupations (top quartile of ensemble exposure) with estimated local employment, Lancaster County has an estimated 1,466 jobs — 30.7% of county employment — carrying an estimated $108M annual wage bill in high-exposure work. The five largest:

Age structure of exposed-industry employment

Cite this page

Machine-readable: this county's JSON · national dataset download and data dictionary on the methodology page.

Nearby and comparable counties

Charlottesville Co., VA (in state)Lexington Co., VA (in state)Powhatan Co., VA (in state)St. Louis Co., MO (similar score)Clay Co., FL (similar score)McCook Co., SD (similar score)

Links point to the economically nearest counties (in-state, and similar national score). County-level geographic adjacency is not part of the public reference data, so proximity here is by rank, not by shared border.

Sources & provenance